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Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

The satellite presentation of Blanca this morning is a bit better 
organized with the diurnal convective maximum resulting in a region 
of cold cloud tops between -75 to -80 C with some slight banding 
near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates were 30 kt from both SAB and TAFB, while the 
most recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate was 33 kt. The initial 
intensity was kept at 30 kt for this advisory.

The ongoing burst of convective activity has nudged the center of 
Blanca slightly further north and slowed the system further, with an 
average 12-h heading of 275/3 kt. Assuming that the convective 
activity this morning is transient, the shallow cyclone should 
remain steered westward for the foreseeable future by a poleward 
low-level ridge. The latest forecast is similar to the previous 
cycle, and lies just slightly south of the TVCE consensus guidance. 

The ongoing convective activity near Blanca has given it at least 
another 12-18 hours of life. In fact, it would not be out of the 
question that Blanca could briefly regain tropical storm status if 
the convection proves to be more persistent, especially since the 
cyclone remains over 27 C sea-surface temperatures and these values 
only slowly decrease as the forecast track parallels the 26-deg-C 
isotherm. However, unfavorable strong vertical wind shear resulting 
in entrainment of dry, stable air to the northwest should eventually 
win out, with the latest NHC forecast still expecting Blanca to 
become a remnant low in 24 h, followed by dissipation in 72-96 h.   


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 15.7N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 15.7N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 15.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 16.0N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0000Z 16.2N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 16.4N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
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