ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that a sheared convective burst is occurring not far from the center of Blanca in the northeastern quadrant, with additional convection in a ragged band farther from the center in the eastern semicircle. Based on this, Blanca is being maintained as a tropical depression on this advisory. Recent scatterometer overpasses showed a large area of 25-30 kt winds, so the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt. The convective flare-up is expected to be short-lived, and Blanca is still forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 h due to continued shear and a drier environment. The global models suggest the remnant low should dissipate between 72-96 h. The center of Blanca is a little farther north than in the previous advisory, possible due to re-formation from the convective burst. Other than that, there is little change in the track forecast philosophy. Since Blanca is now a shallow cyclone, it is forecast to be steered slowly westward by a low-level ridge to its north for the remainder of its existence. The track guidance has shifted a bit northward since the previous advisory. Therefore, the new forecast track is also shifted northward, but lies a bit to the south of the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 15.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.6N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 15.5N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 15.6N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 16.0N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:45 UTC