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Tropical Depression BLANCA

Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that a sheared convective burst is 
occurring not far from the center of Blanca in the northeastern 
quadrant, with additional convection in a ragged band farther from 
the center in the eastern semicircle.  Based on this, Blanca is 
being maintained as a tropical depression on this advisory.  Recent 
scatterometer overpasses showed a large area of 25-30 kt winds, so 
the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt.  The convective 
flare-up is expected to be short-lived, and Blanca is still 
forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 h due to continued 
shear and a drier environment.  The global models suggest the 
remnant low should dissipate between 72-96 h.

The center of Blanca is a little farther north than in the previous 
advisory, possible due to re-formation from the convective burst.  
Other than that, there is little change in the track forecast 
philosophy.  Since Blanca is now a shallow cyclone, it is forecast 
to be steered slowly westward by a low-level ridge to its north for 
the remainder of its existence.  The track guidance has shifted a 
bit northward since the previous advisory.  Therefore, the new 
forecast track is also shifted northward, but lies a bit to the 
south of the consensus models.
INIT  03/0900Z 15.6N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 15.6N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z 15.5N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z 15.6N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 16.0N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Beven