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Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021
Satellite imagery indicates that a sheared convective burst is
occurring not far from the center of Blanca in the northeastern
quadrant, with additional convection in a ragged band farther from
the center in the eastern semicircle. Based on this, Blanca is
being maintained as a tropical depression on this advisory. Recent
scatterometer overpasses showed a large area of 25-30 kt winds, so
the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt. The convective
flare-up is expected to be short-lived, and Blanca is still
forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 h due to continued
shear and a drier environment. The global models suggest the
remnant low should dissipate between 72-96 h.
The center of Blanca is a little farther north than in the previous
advisory, possible due to re-formation from the convective burst.
Other than that, there is little change in the track forecast
philosophy. Since Blanca is now a shallow cyclone, it is forecast
to be steered slowly westward by a low-level ridge to its north for
the remainder of its existence. The track guidance has shifted a
bit northward since the previous advisory. Therefore, the new
forecast track is also shifted northward, but lies a bit to the
south of the consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 15.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.6N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 15.5N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 15.6N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 16.0N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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