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Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021
 
For the most part, Blanca consists of a swirl of low-level clouds
with shallow convection, and a few isolated deeper cells, located
at least 50 n mi east of the center of circulation.  Based on that
structure alone, Blanca is close to becoming a remnant low.
Maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt as a blend of earlier
scatterometer data and the latest Dvorak CI numbers, which range
between 30 and 35 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Southwesterly
shear of about 20 kt is forecast to strengthen further during the
next 36 hours, and with Blanca moving into a drier and more
subsident environment, at best the cyclone will only be able to
produce occasional and temporary bursts of convection.  Therefore,
Blanca is now expected to lose its tropical cyclone characteristics,
and become a remnant low, by this time tomorrow.  Its winds will
continue to gradually diminish, and the remnant low is likely to
dissipate in 4 or 5 days.
 
Blanca appears to have lost some latitude, and is moving slowly
south-of-due-west (265/4 kt).  Now a shallow cyclone, Blanca is
forecast to be steered slowly westward by a low-level ridge
to its north for the remainder of its existence.  There have been
no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning, and the
updated NHC track forecast lies closest to the ECMWF and HCCA
models, and just a little south of the previous NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 15.4N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 15.3N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 15.2N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z 15.1N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 15.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1200Z 15.2N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 15.3N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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