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Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Blanca's satellite appearance has degraded some this morning, with 
the convective structure evolving more into a shear pattern. Recent 
SSMIS microwave passes and first-light visible imagery suggest the 
center is now located on the southwest edge of a recent convective 
burst. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications are lower than 
last night with T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The 
initial intensity was kept at 50 kt for this advisory, but that 
could be generous.
 
The cyclone's estimated motion is 300/6 kt, a bit more westward than 
before. The track philosophy has not changed much this advisory, as 
a mid- to upper-level trough near the Baja California peninsula is 
beginning to weaken the steering ridge. Thus, Blanca is expected to 
move generally west-northwestward with a continued decrease in 
forward speed over the next couple of days. Afterwards, the system 
should turn more westward within the low-level trade winds as it 
becomes vertically shallow. The latest NHC forecast track is a bit 
further southward than the previous advisory, but remains close to 
the HCCA corrected consensus aid.
 
First-light visible imagery suggests that the low-level center of 
Blanca may be in the process of becoming exposed. Owing to the 
degradation in the current satellite structure, Blanca is no longer 
expected to intensify, and in fact may already be weaker than 
currently estimated. Increasing vertical wind shear appears to be 
disrupting the current structure of the cyclone. A gradual weakening 
trend is now forecast to begin by this evening through the end of 
the forecast period as Blanca moves into an environment of drier 
mid-level air and cooler sea surface temperatures. The NHC intensity 
forecast remains close to the HCCA and ICON consensus aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 14.3N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 14.8N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 15.2N 111.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 15.5N 112.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 15.6N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 15.7N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 15.8N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 16.1N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 16.5N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
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