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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
900 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021
 
Satellite images indicate that the depression is getting better
organized with deep convection increasing in intensity and coverage
during the past several hours.  The structure of the system also
appears to be improving with some evidence of a central dense
overcast trying to form.  Although the latest Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB support raising the intensity of the system to a 35-kt
tropical storm, the ASCAT passes from last night showed that the
winds were notably lower than expected and the circulation was broad
and lacking a tight wind field.  Therefore, the initial intensity
is held at 30 kt for this advisory factoring in the aforementioned
ASCAT data.  However, it seems very likely that the depression will
become a tropical storm later today.
 
The depression is currently in favorable conditions of low vertical
wind shear, high oceanic content and a moist low- to mid-level
environment.  These conditions should persist for another day, so
short term strengthening is expected. In about 24 hours, however,
increasing westerly shear, decreasing moisture, and declining SSTs
should induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one and in best agreement with the HCCA
guidance, except a little above that model at the longer lead times.
 
The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the south side
of a mid-level ridge.  A general west-northwest to northwest motion
is expected during the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves on
the southwest side of the ridge and toward a weakness caused by a
mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward from the Baja
California peninsula.  After that time, the weakening and likely
decoupled system should turn westward in the low-level flow.  The
NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 12.4N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 12.9N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 13.5N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 14.2N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 14.7N 112.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 15.1N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 15.3N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 15.6N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 15.8N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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