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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
300 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021
 
Despite its reasonably good satellite presentation, overnight 
satellite-derived wind data indicate that Two-E remains a tropical 
depression. Multiple ASCAT passes show Ten-E has a broad circulation 
with a low-level center that remains displaced southeast of the main 
region of deep convection. Although recent satellite imagery does 
show a new convective burst occurring near the estimated center 
position, the cyclone's lack of improved vertical structure combined 
with scatterometer winds near 25 kt suggest it has yet to 
strengthen. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at a possibly 
generous 30 kt, which is consistent with the T2.0/30 kt subjective 
Dvorak classification received from TAFB.

The estimated motion, 290/12 kt, is again slightly faster than the 
previous advisory. The guidance indicates the depression should 
maintain a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days 
as it moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. 
The system is expected to gradually slow down as a weakness develops 
in the ridge, and this is when increased spread is noted in the 
global models. The GFS and ECMWF lie on opposite extremes of the 
guidance envelope beyond 72 hours, with the ECWMF showing a faster 
westward motion while the GFS takes the system slowly poleward. The 
latest NHC forecast track remains close to the corrected-consensus 
aid HCCA through this period of increased uncertainty.

High oceanic heat content, very low vertical wind shear, and a moist 
mid-level environment should support strengthening during the next 
24 hours or so, before increasing vertical wind shear becomes a 
limiting factor. The ECMWF suggests this could occur earlier than 
previously forecast, which is reflected in the latest intensity 
guidance that trends weaker. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast 
is adjusted downward from the previous advisory beyond 24 hours, but 
still lies on the high end of the guidance envelope and above the 
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It is noted that the HWRF and HMON 
depict more significant strengthening during the next 24 hours, 
which cannot be completely ruled out given the very favorable 
near-term conditions. Beyond day 3, cooler sea-surface temperatures 
and a drier mid-level environment should induce a steady weakening 
trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 12.2N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 12.9N 108.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 13.6N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 15.1N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 15.3N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 15.8N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
 
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