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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
1000 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
The satellite presentation of the depression is gradually improving
as there has been an increase in convective banding over the
northwestern portion of the circulation. Recent microwave data
and late afternoon visible satellite imagery suggest that there is
still some displacement of the low- mid-level centers, with the
low-level center located just southeast of the main convective
mass. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remained 2.0
and 2.5, respectively at 00Z, and the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt for this advisory. Overnight ASCAT data should be helpful
in determining the intensity and size of the cyclone's wind field.
The initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, but appears to be a
little faster than before or 295/10 kt. The global models show a
general west-northwestward motion during the next couple of days to
the south of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a cut-off low
that develops near the central portion of the Baja peninsula is
forecast to weaken the ridge causing the tropical cyclone to slow
down. The updated NHC forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, except it indicates a slower forward motion during the
latter portion of the period. It should be noted that the GFS
takes a stronger cyclone more poleward into the weakness in the
ridge, but the NHC forecast remains close to the TVCE, GFEX, and
HCCA model consensus aids. Given the more than 250 n mi spread
between the ECMWF and GFS models by day 5, the latter portion
of the track forecast is of lower confidence than normal.
The depression is located over warm waters and in a very low shear
environment. These conditions, along with a moist atmosphere,
favor strengthening during the next couple of days. If the
low- and mid-level centers become co-located, a faster rate of
strengthening could occur in the short term, and the NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher at 24 and 36 hours than before. Given
the very low shear conditions expected, it would not be too
surprising to see the cyclone intensify a little more than forecast
if the inner-core structure improves overnight. After 48 hours,
moderate southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing SSTs
should result in gradual weakening later in the period. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is best agreement with the higher
GFS-based SHIPS guidance and not far from the various consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 11.8N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 12.3N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 13.1N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 14.3N 110.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 14.8N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 15.2N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 15.7N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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