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Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021
Hostile environmental conditions are taking a toll on Andres this
afternoon. After a small area of convection persisted downshear of
the cyclone's partially exposed low-level center earlier today,
recent satellite images show rapidly warming cloud tops in the
northeast quadrant with no signs of new convection anywhere near the
center. Additionally, the low-level center now appears to be
completely exposed. Although T2.5 18Z Dvorak classifications were
received from SAB and TAFB, recent satellite trends and UW-CIMSS ADT
estimates indicate the system has weakened since that time.
Therefore, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt with this advisory,
making Andres a tropical depression.
Andres appeared to take a bit of a northward jog earlier today, but
the current estimated motion is 330/06 kt. The weakening, shallow
cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward and westward on
Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of a building low-level
ridge to its north. The latest track forecast is close to the center
of the guidance envelope, with just a slight adjustment to the right
of track from the previous forecast.
An upper-level ridge to the northwest of the cyclone is producing
increasing vertical wind shear over Andres. This, combined with some
drier mid-level air encroaching on the cyclone from the west, will
continue weakening Andres through its dissipation by midweek.
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest the
system will struggle to generate any new convection overnight, and
this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low on Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 16.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW