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Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021
 
Andres continues to battle vertical wind shear this morning.  Early 
visible satellite imagery indicates the broadened circulation of the 
cyclone is exposed and displaced to the southwest of a recent burst 
of deep convection.  Overall, the convective coverage has noticeably 
decreased during the past several hours, with warming infrared cloud 
top temperatures noted where a convective band wrapped around the 
eastern semicircle overnight.  A blend of the objective ADT and 
SATCON estimates with subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and 
TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt.  Hopefully, 
scatterometer data will become available this afternoon to better 
assess the intensity of Andres.
 
The center of the cyclone was adjusted a bit northward this morning 
based on recent visible imagery, and its estimated motion is now 
330/05 kt.  A general northwestward motion is expected today as 
Andres moves around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical 
ridge.  As the cyclone spins down and becomes more vertically 
shallow, it should turn more west-northwestward and then westward 
under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north.  The 
forecast track has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast 
to account for the center adjustment, and the new track lies closer 
to the reliable consensus aids including HCCA.
 
Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with drier and 
more stable low- to mid-level air approaching from the west, suggest 
a weakening trend is imminent.  Andres is expected to become a 
tropical depression later today and then continue weakening through 
midweek as environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. GFS 
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the cyclone will 
become devoid of convection by tonight, and so this forecast shows 
Andres becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 15.4N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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