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Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

Convection associated with Wanda has decreased during the past 
several hours, with only a small convective cluster occurring just 
east of the center.  In addition, scatterometer data received since 
the last advisory suggests that the maximum winds have decreased to 
near 40 kt.  That will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

Wanda is starting its long-anticipated northeastward turn, with the 
initial motion now 090/3 kt.  Developing deep-layer southwesterly 
flow on the southeast side of a large mid-latitude low pressure area 
should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward during the next 
12 h, with a fast northeastward motion continuing until Wanda 
dissipates between 36-48 h.  The track guidance is in good 
agreement, and the new track forecast lies near the various 
consensus models.

Despite the recent weakening, the intensity guidance still 
forecasts some intensification during the next 12-24 h, possibly 
due to increased upper-level divergence over the cyclone caused by 
the mid-latitude low or the upcoming significant increase in 
forward speed.  The new intensity forecast will continue to call for 
Wanda to strengthen for 24 h, although given current trends it would 
not be surprising if it did not.  The cyclone is expected to merge 
with a cold front between 24-36 h, and the forecast follows the the 
global model guidance in calling for the circulation to dissipate by 
48 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 37.0N  37.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 38.5N  35.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 42.2N  30.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 47.4N  23.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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