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Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds, with 
the only significant convection occurring about 120 n mi southeast 
of the center.  Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, and 
are now 25 kt from TAFB and too weak to classify from SAB.  Based 
mainly on earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held 
at a possibly generous 30 kt.  Rose remain in an area of 
northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level 
air has been entraining into the circulation.  The large-scale model 
guidance indicates that the hostile conditions will continue for at 
least another 36 h, and based on model forecasts of convection Rose 
is now expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 
24 h or less.  It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models 
suggest the possibility that convection could re-develop in the 
48-96 h period due to the remnant low interacting with an 
upper-level trough.  For now, the intensity forecast will not call 
for re-generation at that time.
 
The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/9 kt.  A 
northwestward motion is expected for the next 12-24 hours as Rose or 
its remnants are steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern 
Atlantic.  After that time, the system is expected to turn 
northward, northeastward, and eventually east-northeastward as it 
becomes steered by a deep-layer trough that includes the remnants 
of Odette.  Since Rose has moved a bit to the west of the previous 
forecast, the guidance and the new forecast track have also shifted 
westward during the first 36 h. The new NHC track is to the east of 
the consensus models for the first 36 h, and close to the consensus 
aids after that time.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 24.2N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 25.2N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 26.7N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z 28.0N  41.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 29.0N  39.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0600Z 29.5N  36.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 30.1N  34.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z 31.9N  30.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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