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Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Shear continues to disrupt Rose's deep convection, with only a 
small cluster remaining in the eastern quadrant of the storm.  
Dvorak estimates support holding the intensity at 35 kt for one 
more advisory, and hopefully the evening scatterometer passes will 
get a good look at the cyclone's wind field.
 
Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest, now about 10 kt.  The 
storm should gradually turn northward during the next couple of 
days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge. Somewhat 
surprisingly, guidance has shifted westward during this time, 
perhaps due to a weaker Rose not feeling as much of the 
southwesterly flow aloft.  This westward shift in the track also 
puts Rose in a position to either get shunted east like the ECMWF 
solution, or uprooted more to the northeast at long range similar to 
the GFS.  Given the recent and large model changes since the last 
cycle, this forecast conservatively moves westward toward the model 
mean at most time ranges, not too far from a 50/50 blend of the 
GFS/ECMWF models (GFEX).

The cyclone has a difficult environment ahead, with persistent 
moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft 
and only marginally warm waters.  All of the guidance shows Rose 
decaying into a tropical depression fairly soon, and it could even 
wither into a remnant low tomorrow or Thursday in the harsh 
conditions.  However, the shear could let up just enough, along with 
some upper divergence from an upcoming trough interaction, to 
continue to produce deep convection for a few days.  This isn't an 
easy forecast because some of the guidance actually re-intensifies 
Rose due to the trough, while other guidance completely dissipates 
the tropical cyclone.  Given the considerable uncertainty, I've kept 
the previous forecast the same at long range until more clarity 
emerges in the model suite.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 22.5N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 23.5N  38.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 24.8N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 26.2N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 27.5N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 28.8N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 29.8N  38.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z 31.5N  33.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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