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Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
Peter continues to just barely maintain its classification as a 
tropical cyclone. While the low-level circulation has remained 
intact today, the convection continues to be located well downshear 
to the east. However, there have been a few convective elements 
forming a bit closer to the center recently and that is the 
primarily justification for maintaining advisories on Peter as 
a tropical cyclone this afternoon. The initial intensity is 
maintained at 30 kt given the earlier scatterometer data, though 
this might be generous. Continued strong southwesterly vertical wind 
shear within a dry mid-level environment should ultimately strip the 
remaining convection away from Peter, with the tropical cyclone 
expected to finally peter out as a post-tropical remnant low in the 
next 12 hours. 

The depression has been moving very slowly recently, with an 
estimated north-northwestward motion of 340/4 kt. The cyclone is 
expected to turn northward and then north-northeastward following a 
weakness in the low-level ridge until the system finally opens up 
into a trough, sometime in the 48 to 60 hour period.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 21.7N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 22.5N  66.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1800Z 23.5N  66.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z 24.4N  66.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 25.6N  65.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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