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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO 
SABINE PASS...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS
PASS TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SABINE 
PASS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN 
BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA 
BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SABINE PASS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA
* CORPUS CHRISTI BAY
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE 
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR 
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  96.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  96.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  96.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N  96.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N  96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N  95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.0N  94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.5N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.0N  91.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N  96.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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