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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING
GALVESTON BAY
* BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N  96.3W AT 13/0430Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N  96.3W AT 13/0430Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  96.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N  96.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N  96.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.4N  96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N  95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N  94.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.3N  94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N  92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N  96.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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