ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO FREEPORT...
TEXAS.
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS INCLUDING ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO 
BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO SARGENT.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SARGENT TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO FREEPORT TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE,
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.  
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
  
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  95.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  95.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  95.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.4N  96.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.7N  96.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N  96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.4N  96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.2N  95.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N  95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.9N  94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N  95.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
NNNN