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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARRA EL MEZQUITAL NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM 
THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  94.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  94.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  94.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.9N  95.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N  96.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.4N  96.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.2N  96.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.4N  95.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N  95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N  94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N  94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  94.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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