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Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021
 
Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of
Mindy has recently moved offshore the coast of Georgia.  Buoy 
41008 located off the Georgia coast recently recorded 1-min 
sustained winds of 29 kt with gusts as high as 33 kt.  Thus, 30 kt 
is maintained as the intensity for this advisory. 

Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly 
vertical wind shear.  Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to 
become even stronger.  The strong shear should prevent 
restrengthening and is likely to strip away any remaining convection 
by Friday or Friday night.  Mindy is forecast to become 
post-tropical Friday evening.  Most of the global models suggest 
that the cyclone will open up into a trough in 36-48 h, but it is 
possible this could happen sooner, as surface observations already 
show that easterly winds on the north side have become quite weak.  
The NHC forecast calls for dissipation Friday night, which is sooner 
than the previous advisory.
 
Mindy continues moving quickly to the east-northeast or 065/18 kt. 
There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy.  Mindy is 
forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed 
for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough 
moving across the eastern United States.  Once the trough begins to 
lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday.  The 
main adjustment to the NHC track is to show a slightly faster motion 
toward the east-northeast at the 24-36 h points.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Mindy will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of
coastal South Carolina through early this afternoon. This rainfall
may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream
flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 31.5N  80.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 32.5N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 33.6N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 34.3N  70.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
 
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