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Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021
 
Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of
Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight.  Now that
more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has
weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has
become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt.
Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this
afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent
re-strengthening.  In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to
around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any
remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening.  Mindy is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by
day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could
occur sooner.
 
Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There
has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the
previous advisory.  Mindy should continue to move northeastward near
the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving
across the eastern United States today.  Once the trough begins to
lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down
and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance
envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated
NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track
lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This
rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small
stream flooding.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of
southeastern Georgia this morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 30.8N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 31.9N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  10/0600Z 33.0N  75.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 33.9N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 34.4N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1800Z 34.8N  67.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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