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Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021
 
Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that the
center of Mindy made landfall over St. Vincent Island, Florida,
near 0115 UTC. Since that time, the center has been moving along
the shoreline of Apalachee Bay.  The intensity is held at 40 kt
based on continuity from earlier buoy data and a 43-kt wind at an
elevated tower south of Apalachicola.  The central pressure has
been lowered to 1002 mb based on surface obs from the Apalachicola
area.  It should be noted that while Mindy is not well organized in 
satellite imagery, but it has a good radar presentation.
 
The initial motion is 055/17.  A general east-northeastward motion 
should continue for the next 24 h or so as Mindy moves along the 
southern edge of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the
eastern United States. After that, a decrease in forward speed and 
a more eastward motion are expected as the aforementioned trough 
moves away from Mindy and the cyclone becomes vertically shallow.  
The forecast track keeps the center along the Gulf coast for a few 
more hours, followed by a motion across northern Florida and 
southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic.  The new forecast track is 
a little faster than the previous forecast.

Little change in strength is likely during the next few hours while 
the center of Mindy straddles the coast.  Weakening should occur as 
the center moves farther inland later tonight, aided by an increase 
in westerly vertical wind shear.  By the time the cyclone reaches 
the Atlantic, the shear should be strong enough to make the system 
continue to weaken.  The new intensity forecast is a little 
stronger than the previous forecast during the first 12 h, then is 
similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to 
dissipate after 72 h.


Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from 
the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South 
Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce 
isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in
portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are also possible across 
portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia 
near the center of Mindy.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 29.9N  84.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 31.0N  81.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/0000Z 32.2N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/1200Z 33.1N  73.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 33.7N  70.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 34.1N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0000Z 34.3N  66.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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