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Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021
 
Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern 
Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on 
geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515 
UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in 
the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation. 
The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small 
closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these 
stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become 
evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally 
nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These 
Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of 
hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably 
confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last 
hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind 
of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has 
tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated 
on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt.
 
The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to 
the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement 
that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the 
east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the 
influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the 
eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of 
Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12 
hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States 
by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the 
cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes 
vertically shallow.
 
Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land 
interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24 
hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off 
the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase 
above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from 
remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR 
brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in 
the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a 
trough shortly thereafter.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in 
portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is 
in effect. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 29.0N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 30.3N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1800Z 31.3N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/0600Z 32.3N  75.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 32.9N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 33.4N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 33.3N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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