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Hurricane Larry Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

Satellite imagery and data from Canadian radars indicate that Larry 
is maintaining good central convective banding in the northeastern 
semicircle, and based on this it is still a tropical cyclone at 
this time. The maximum intensity is held at 70 kt based mainly on 
recently-received scattterometer data showing 64-67 kt winds to the 
east and southeast of the center.  Surface observations indicate 
that tropical storm conditions are spreading into southeastern 
Newfoundland, and hurricane condition should move onshore during 
the next few hours as the center makes landfall.

After landfall, Larry is expected to quickly lose its tropical 
cyclone characteristics and become a strong extratropical low over 
the Labrador Sea.  The cyclone is forecast to dissipate after 24 h 
as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low currently to its 
northwest.  

Larry is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast with an initial 
motion of 030/41.  This general motion should continue until Larry 
merges with the other low pressure area.  The new official forecast 
track is little changed from the previous track and is in the 
middle of the tightly clustered guidance models.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Larry will move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland 
during the next several hours as it undergoes transition to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone.  Hurricane conditions, a
dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions
of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.
 
2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 46.8N  54.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 51.9N  49.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  12/0000Z 56.8N  44.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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