Hurricane LARRY (Text)

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021
Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite
images this afternoon.  The eye remains rather ill-defined but the
hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around
the center.  Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined,
particularly to the northwest.  The current intensity estimate is
held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak
estimates.  Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to 
provide a new intensity estimate.
The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the
northwest, or at about 325/13 kt.  The track forecast philosophy
remains about the same as before.  Larry should move around the
western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the
central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of
Bermuda tomorrow.  After that, the hurricane is expected to
accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough
moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near 
or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours.  Then, the 
cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic.  The 
official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus 
solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track.
Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical
shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days.
Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool
significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening.
However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west
may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler
waters, as suggested by the global models.  The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane
strength even after extratropical transition.  In 5 days or less,
the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over
the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:
1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the 
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and 
Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will 
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and 
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to 
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.
2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal
flooding.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.
3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition
to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing
risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in
portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates
to the forecast.

INIT  08/2100Z 28.9N  59.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 30.6N  60.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 33.3N  61.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 37.0N  61.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 42.0N  58.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 48.0N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z 54.0N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1800Z 62.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:27 UTC