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Hurricane Larry Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021
 
The overall structure of Larry has changed little today. A large eye 
remains surrounded by a cold ring of convection with cloud tops of 
-75 to -80 C. The only notable difference between now and several 
hours ago has been that some cloud cover has become evident within 
the eye. A blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB 
suggest that the initial intensity remains 110 kt. 
 
Larry is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt, around the 
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. There has been no 
change to the forecast track reasoning, nor has there been any 
notable change to the NHC forecast track from the previous advisory, 
due to the forecast models remaining in excellent agreement. A 
northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next few days 
to the southwest of the ridge. In a few days, the hurricane is 
forecast to reach the western periphery of this ridge, resulting in 
the cyclone beginning gradual recurvature to the north then 
northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies. 

Other than some minor fluctuations in intensity due to internal 
influences, the stable, annular-like structure of Larry should allow 
for it to remain a major hurricane for the next couple of days, 
despite being surrounded by some mid-level dry air. By day 4, the 
cyclone is forecast to move over waters of progressively decreasing 
oceanic heat content, which should induce gradual weakening. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous 
one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA and DSHP, which have 
been two of the best performing models for Larry's intensity thus 
far.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser 
Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, 
the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.  Significant swells 
should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada 
by midweek.  These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along 
these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local 
officials this week.
 
2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several 
days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, 
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of 
this week.  While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these 
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should 
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several 
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 20.5N  50.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 21.6N  51.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 22.7N  53.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 23.9N  54.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 25.3N  56.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 26.8N  57.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 28.5N  59.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 32.8N  61.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 39.8N  58.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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