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Hurricane Larry Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021
 
Larry's strengthening trend appears to have paused for the moment.
The hurricane has generally changed little during the past several
hours with the inner core still fairly symmetric, though cloud tops
are coldest to the south of the ragged eye. The outer bands are also
quite distinct, especially to the south of the center.  The latest
Dvorak estimates still range from 90 to 110 kt, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt.
 
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 14 
kt.  Larry is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to 
northwestward during the next few days as it remains steered by a 
subtropical ridge to its northeast.  By the middle of next week, a 
turn to the north-northwest is forecast when the hurricane reaches 
the western periphery of the ridge.  The models are in fairly good 
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the HCCA 
and TVCA consensus aids.  Based on this forecast, Larry is expected 
to be moving across the central Atlantic during the next several 
days and approach Bermuda by the end of the forecast period.
 
Larry is expected to remain in generally favorable conditions for 
strengthening during the next couple of days, with SSTs increasing 
along the storm's track and vertical wind shear remaining fairly 
low.  The models suggest that there could be an increase in shear 
early next week, and that combined with slightly drier and more 
stable air should end the strengthening trend and likely cause some 
weakening.  It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles are a 
possibility at some point during the forecast period, and these can 
cause intensity fluctuations that are difficult to predict. 
Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to remain a major 
hurricane during the next several days.  The NHC intensity forecast 
is just an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of 
the model guidance.
 
Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field
are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then
spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions.  Large
swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United
States by midweek.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 16.3N  44.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 17.2N  46.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 18.4N  48.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 19.7N  50.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 21.0N  52.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 22.0N  54.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 23.3N  56.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 26.1N  59.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 30.6N  62.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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