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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021
 
The depression's center has again scooted northwestward away from
the associated deep convection due to continuing 20-25 kt of
northwesterly shear.  Since there has been no appreciable change to
the various intensity estimates from this morning, the estimated
maximum winds remain 30 kt for this advisory.  The source of the
shear can be seen in water vapor imagery, with high-level clouds
emanating from the eastern Caribbean Sea and blowing directly into
the depression.  In fact, model guidance is now indicating that the
shear may increase as high as 35-40 kt during the next 24 hours
while the depression moves beneath the subtropical jet stream, and
the NHC intensity forecast therefore now shows no intensity change
through 36 hours.  By 48 hours, the system should have moved north
of the subtropical jet, and lower shear and relatively warm waters
should finally allow for some strengthening.  During the latter
part of the forecast period, the NHC intensity forecast is very
close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.  Much of this forecast
is contingent on the depression actually surviving the next 24-36
hours, however.
 
The depression is moving just west of due north (355/10 kt), but
the system is expected to slow down and turn slightly toward the
north-northeast within 24 hours, ahead of the tail end of a
deep-layer trough which extends over much of the central Atlantic.
Beginning in about 48 hours, a piece of the east Atlantic
subtropical ridge is forecast to pinch off and block the
depression, causing it to turn back to the north and
north-northwest through the end of the 5-day forecast period.  This
developing high looks like it will be a little stronger than
previously thought, and most of the models have shifted
significantly westward after 48 hours.  The new NHC track forecast
has been adjusted westward as well, but it is not as far west as
the deterministic models and the consensus aids.  Therefore,
additional adjustment may be required in subsequent advisories.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 19.7N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 20.7N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 22.1N  49.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 23.3N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 24.5N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 25.8N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 27.4N  50.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 30.4N  51.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 33.7N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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