ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The center of the depression has become a little more exposed to the northwest of the deep convection during the past few hours as a result of continued 25-30 kt of northwesterly shear. The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5 from TAFB and T1.0/2.0 from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The system is expected to continue moving through a region of strong northwesterly to westerly shear for the next 2 days or so, and little to no strengthening is anticipated during that time. However, if the convection is able to remain fairly close to the center, then the system could eke into tropical storm status at any time. After 48 hours, a significant decrease in shear, along with warm waters of 27-28 degrees Celsius, should allow for a steady strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward on days 3 through 5, although much of the guidance is even higher, suggesting that further adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. The depression is moving northward (350/10 kt) through a break in the ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending south of Newfoundland over the central Atlantic. This trough, along with a strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic on days 3-5, are expected to keep the cyclone on a curvy northward track during the entire forecast period. There is high confidence in the track forecast given low spread among the track models, and the NHC official forecast generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:24 UTC