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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021
 
First light visible imagery shows that the rather disorganized 
surface center is exposed near the western edge of the cloud mass.  
The associated deep convection has been diminishing during the past 
6 hours due to the stiff west-northwesterly shear and a rather 
parched surrounding thermodynamic environment.  The initial 
intensity is held at 30 kt, consistent with the Dvorak satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the 1156 UTC METOP-A 
scatterometer pass.
 
The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows that the shear should 
decrease somewhat tonight and into Sunday, which should allow for 
some strengthening.  By Monday, the aforementioned model, along 
with the deterministic guidance, indicates an increase in the shear 
magnitude and even lower mid- tropospheric relative humidity 
values, which should cap further strengthening and weaken the 
cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast 
period.  There's more agreement in the large-scale models this 
morning indicating that the depression will degenerate into a 
remnant low toward the end of the week, and the NHC forecast 
follows suit.  This is the only change from the previous advisory, 
and the NHC intensity forecast closely resembles the skilled IVCN 
and HCCA intensity consensus aids.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/7 kt.  The
depression is embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced 
by a mid-Atlantic trough stretching from the northeast Atlantic to
the central tropical Atlantic.  This feature, along with a
subtropical ridge situated over the east Atlantic and western
Africa, should steer the depression generally toward the north
through the 5-day period.  The official track forecast has been 
nudged to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and is 
close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA multimodel guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 14.8N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 15.7N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 17.1N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 18.6N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 20.1N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  31/0000Z 21.4N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 22.7N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 25.4N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 28.6N  51.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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