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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
 
...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS 
LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.0N 80.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.  Watches may be required for a
portion of the northern Gulf coast later tonight or Friday morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was 
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 80.1 West. The storm is 
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general 
motion should continue over the next few days.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Cayman Islands 
tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Friday, and over the 
southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday.  
The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on 
Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ida is 
forecast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba with 
additional strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of 
Mexico. Ida could be near major hurricane strength when it 
approaches the northern Gulf coast.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 
north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands 
tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of 
western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.
 
RAINFALL:  Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations 
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.  
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, 
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce 
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Ida may begin to bring rainfall and potential flooding impacts to 
the central Gulf Coast by early Sunday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the 
Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely 
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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