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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
 
...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Sabine Pass to the
Alabama/Florida border including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay
 
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron, Louisiana eastward
to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain,
Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Alabama/Florida border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Mobile Bay
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Ida is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion should continue over the next few days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Cayman Islands
during the next few hours, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday
night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S.
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico in a day or two with additional strengthening expected
thereafter. Ida could be near major hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of
western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.  Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf
coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Ida is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands
and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.  These rainfall
amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
Tropical Storm Ida is likely to bring rainfall amounts of 8 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches along the
central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday.  This is likely to result in
flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding to the central
Gulf Coast.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin
reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or
early Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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