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TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... 
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IDA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  81.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  81.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  80.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.5N  82.9W...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.4N  84.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N  86.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N  88.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N  90.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.1N  91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  81.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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