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Tropical Depression HENRI (Text)


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Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface 
observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near 
25 kt.  A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours, 
and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that 
the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence 
into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so.  Beyond 48 hours the dynamical 
guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity.

Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is 
moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt.  Henri is interacting 
with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United 
States.  As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is 
expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the 
east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion 
into Tuesday.  The official forecast track is similar to the 
dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still
continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant
flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern 
mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri.
Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories 
issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under 
AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 


Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, 
urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for 
additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions 
of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and 
northeast Pennsylvania.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 41.9N  73.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  23/1200Z 42.1N  73.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/0000Z 42.4N  72.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1200Z 42.8N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  25/0000Z 43.4N  65.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Nov-2021 12:09:20 UTC