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Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021
 
Henri's presentation in both satellite and radar imagery has 
degraded significantly since the previous advisory due to the 
cyclone having moved over much cooler water. An eyewall feature is 
no longer evident and clouds tops have warmed markedly in the 
inner-core region around the center. Data from an Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler weather radars, and surface 
observations indicate that Henri's peak winds have decreased to 
50 kt despite the central pressure remaining constant at about 987 
mb.

Henri is moving north-northwestward or 335/10 kt. The cyclone is 
forecast to gradually turn northwestward later this afternoon and 
possibly even move westward before stalling near the New 
York-Connecticut border later tonight owing to interaction with a 
mid- to upper-level low located over he DelMarVa region. The latter 
system is expected to be absorbed by Henri by early Monday morning 
before ejecting out slowly eastward to east-northeastward across 
southern New England by Monday afternoon and evening. Henri is then 
forecast to cross the southern Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia as a 
remnant low on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to 
the west and south of the previous advisory track, and lies close 
to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.
 
Little change in strength is expected until Henri makes landfall in 
the Rhode Island-eastern Connecticut area this afternoon. After 
landfall, rapid weakening is forecast due to land interaction and 
entrainment of cooler air coming in off of the Atlantic Ocean. Henri 
should weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become 
post-tropical by Monday afternoon or evening.
 
Due to the degraded radar presentation of Henri, hourly Tropical 
Cyclone Updates (TCU) will be discontinued after the 1100 AM EDT 
advisory.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to continue today 
in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and 
southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been 
issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the 
tropical storm warning area into tonight. 
 
3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small 
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to 
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New 
England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania.
 
4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 41.1N  71.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 42.4N  73.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/1200Z 43.0N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0000Z 43.3N  71.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  24/1200Z 43.7N  68.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  25/0000Z 44.3N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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