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BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021
 
...GRACE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO 
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located 
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 94.5 West.  Grace is moving 
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion at a 
slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so. 
On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move 
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through this evening, and 
then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the 
hurricane warning area tonight.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 
km/h) with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until Grace 
makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland 
over the mountains of central Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches) is
based on data collected by the aircraft.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TUXPAN 
MEXICOATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening, with
tropical storm conditions expected later this afternoon. Tropical 
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning 
area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides.
 
SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
 
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