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Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021
...GRACE RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 92.6 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward
motion is expected early this morning, followed by a westward to
west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning later today.
On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then make landfall
along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening or tonight.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Grace is re-strengthening. Maximum sustained winds
are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system
is expected to regain hurricane strength later this morning. After
landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the
mountains of central Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. An automated observing site on Cayo Arenas,
located about 120 miles (190 km) northeast of the center of
Grace, has reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust
to 54 mph (87 km/h) within the past few hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in
mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional
to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible
through early this morning.
Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding
as well as mudslides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane
warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and
to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the
southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.