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Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 89.5 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a general
westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed over the
weekend. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to continue to
move across the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours, and
move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico this evening through
Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland
coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher. Re-intensification is likely after the center
reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when
it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late
Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace
moves inland over central Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the
tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several
more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane
warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the
eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
Elevated water levels will gradually recede along the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin
to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.