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Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND BEGINNING TO 
SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.5N 77.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti is discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace.  Additional watches or warnings may
be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 77.5 West.  Grace is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days.  On
the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near
the northern coast of Jamaica this afternoon.  Grace is forecast to
move near or over the Cayman Islands late tonight and early
Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late
Wednesday or early Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on
Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the
center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.  Kingston, Jamaica recently reported a wind gust 
to 46 mph (74 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over 
portions of Jamaica today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected 
along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area later this 
afternoon through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands 
beginning tonight and into early Wednesday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the 
watch area tonight and Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Over Haiti...an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain
areas today. This heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban
flooding, and possible mudslides.
 
Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy
rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2-4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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