ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
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Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Cayman Islands should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are likely
later today or tonight.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west
to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several
days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near
the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then
between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday.
Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.
Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread
westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.