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Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021
...GRACE CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a
general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the
next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over
Hispaniola later today, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and
near or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
two to three days.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is
1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic today, and in Haiti today into tonight.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible
Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm
total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.
By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.