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Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021
...GRACE CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
* Entire coast of Haiti
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for some of these areas later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 63.7 West. Grace is now
moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Grace is expected to pass near the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today, near or over the Dominican Republic tonight and
Monday, and then move near or over Haiti Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands this morning, in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:
Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into
By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
affect portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.