ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021
 
...GRACE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should have already been completed. 
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is forecast to make landfall along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area later tonight.
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 
mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts, making Grace a category 3 
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some 
additional strengthening is possible until Grace makes landfall, 
with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the 
mountains of central Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 967 mb (28.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical
storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in
mainland Mexico through tomorrow morning.
 
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San
Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides.
 
SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven
 
NNNN