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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021
 
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 88.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches.
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Herrero and the Hurricane
Warning from Punta Herrero to Tulum. The Hurricane Warning from
Tulum to Cancun has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
The government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Warning from
Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo, and a Tropical Storm
Warning from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was 
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 88.8 West. Grace is 
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a general 
westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed over the 
weekend. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to continue to 
move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and move over the southwest 
Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday. Grace will 
likely make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late 
Friday or early Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher. Additional weakening is possible while Grace moves 
across land today. Re-intensification is likely after the center 
reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when 
it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late 
Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace 
moves inland over central Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread
westward today across the northern Yucatan peninsula within the
tropical storm warning area. Hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or
early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.
 
RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
 
Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
 
Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall along the
eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
Elevated water levels will gradually recede along the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of 
the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin 
to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline over the weekend. 
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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