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Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
...GRACE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 83.7 West. Grace is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next
several days. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to make
landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, move
over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center of Grace
reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the
center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with
restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico on Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). Tropical-storm-force wind gusts were reported over
portions of western Cuba this afternoon.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
WIND: Strong gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cayman
Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area for
the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within
the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or
early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as
The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over the Cayman Islands and central to northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall
from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding
Over the central to northern Veracruz state of Mexico, 5 to 10
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are
expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will
likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be
capable of producing mudslides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.