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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021
 
...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 79.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward
to Dzilam.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the north
and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of Dzilam to
Campeche.
 
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban province of Santiago de Cuba.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Granma, Las Tunas, and
Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Dzilam
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* North and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of
Dzilam to Campeche
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace.  Additional watches or warnings may
be required early Wednesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 79.2 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A general westward 
to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. 
On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move 
away from the western coast of Jamaica overnight.  Grace is 
forecast to move near or over the Cayman Islands early Wednesday, 
and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or 
early Thursday.
 
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane 
on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to 
the center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) 
primarily to the east of the center. 
 
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over 
portions of Jamaica for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions 
are expected along a portion of the southern coast of Cuba within 
the warning area through tonight, and over the Cayman Islands 
beginning by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in 
the Cayman Islands by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area 
tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the 
warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Wednesday night 
with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Wednesday 
evening.
 
RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan 
Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 
10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may 
lead to flash and urban flooding, and across Jamaica, mudslides will 
also be possible.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to
3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands.
 
A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5
ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica 
to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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