ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
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Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021
...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern coast of the province of Pinar del Rio.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the
Yucatan coast early Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 73.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the
next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will
continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during
the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba
and Jamaica on Tuesday. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman
Islands Tuesday night and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Further
strengthening is anticipated before Grace approaches the coast of
Mexico in a few days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti overnight,
and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday,
and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.
Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected
through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban
Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into
Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.