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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021
 
...GRACE STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 67.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands has been discontinued.
 
The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from the southern Haitian
border to Samana.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 67.3 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A 
generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few 
days.  On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on 
Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over 
west-central Cuba on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the 
next 48 hours.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican
Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday
night.
 
RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts today into Tuesday:
 
Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches.  This rainfall may produce
scattered areas of flash and urban flooding.
 
Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding
and possible mudslides.
 
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas.  Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible
mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.
 
By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will
reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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