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HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA
HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  83.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  83.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  83.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.2N  86.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N  89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N  92.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N  94.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N  97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N  99.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  83.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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