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HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021
1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA
HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 82.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 82.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 81.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.7N 84.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 97.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 82.2W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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