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TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO INCLUDING
COZUMEL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO
CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO
TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH 
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS
ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.
 
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  77.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  77.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  77.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N  80.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.4N  83.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N  86.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N  92.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N  94.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N  99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N  77.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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